A Lebanese Abroad

Opinions from an opinionated Lebanese abroad about Lebanon's politics, business and the future of a United Lebanon.

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Thursday, March 10, 2005

For or Against 1559?

Today, the NY Times reported that the U.S. may be inclined to lower the heat on Hizbullah in order not to loose their support completely for getting Syria out of Lebanon. Indeed, it’s a tricky situation- how to extricate the militancy (and military) aspect of Hizbullah while preserving its potentially beneficial political role as a counter balance to Syria. So, far, I don’t really see how this could easily happen, since Hizbullah’s messages via Tuesday’s pro-Syrian demonstration and speeches have already emboldened President Lahoud to ask Karami to re-load his government. I think the Americans were 3 weeks too late in that realization. They should have moved-in right after Hariri’s death while Hizbullah's position was still somewhat in limbo.

However, as pro-Syrian as Hizbullah appears to be, they don’t see eye to eye in regards to 1559 where there has been a softening of the Syrian stand (although it might well be lip service). Hizbullah is adamantly opposed to 1559, “We have come here to voice to the world our opposition to the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559” said Nasrallah in his speech. He added that support of 1559 is a means to “toppling the Taif Accord”. Contrast this to the Syrian-Lebanese communiqué and Assad’s speech where they don’t seem to have a problem anymore with 1559, and rather perceive the Taef Accord’s implementation as a means to also meet 1559. Is this cheap talk or an indirect way to confront Hizbullah eventually on 1559 which stipulates its disarmament? Or will Syria end-up simply ignoring sections in 1559 that they don’t like by tolerating Hizbullah’s militia army anyways? And if Syria and Lebanon are now “for” 1559, why did they allow the Lebanese Parliament to condemn it only a few months ago, in the name of foreign interference? We have to keep asking the tough questions.

Strategically, I think that the opposition should exploit this level of disagreement between Hizbullah and Syria and drive a wedge further between them. If Hizbullah is really with Lebanon, they should put their faith with the Lebanese army and/or integrate with it completely. Even further, they should consider changing their name while in the midst of this makeover, if they want to become solely a politically, culturally and socially active party in the context of a United Lebanon.


Blogger Antonio Hicks said...

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10:32 PM  

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