A Lebanese Abroad

Opinions from an opinionated Lebanese abroad about Lebanon's politics, business and the future of a United Lebanon.

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Wednesday, March 16, 2005

10 Predictions for Lebanon for 2005

First, some reflections on March 14th 2005.

The ink will not dry for a long time on the significance of the March 14th 2005 demonstrations in Lebanon. The country is even more energized than before because everyone knows now that this is the beginning of the end, and this end will lead to a new beginning (to paraphrase Churchill). March 14th was an "up the ante" day that delivered, delivered and delivered.

Technically, the only major obstacle to this new beginning is free elections. The failure of forming a government is not even a major surprise, since it proved that the pro-Syrians are powerless without the heavy hand of Syria.

My top 10 predictions for what might happen next:

1) Karame resigns again
2) A report links the Lebanese government and Syrian Intelligence to the murder of Hariri
3) Syria accelerates its departure
4) Lahoud agrees to resign after a new Parliament is voted
5) Hezbollah experiences internal rifts and starts to lose power
6) Elections in June, one month after the last Syrian soldier has left
7) Elligible Lebanese abroad are allowed to vote in special circumstances
8) A number of Lebanese politicians take asylum in Syria
9) The Lebanese economy booms in 2005 at 8% annual growth
10) 100,000 expat Lebanese return to the homeland

OK, here's an 11th one, but it's a long shot:
11) Something happens in Syria to the current regime

And we all live happily thereafter, because after a 30-year nightmare, there will be 30 years of prosperity and peace.

What are your predictions?

17 Comments:

Blogger Tina said...

From your keyboard to God's ear!

1:18 PM  
Blogger Doha said...

Amongst all that you prediced, I feel that the one on Hizbullah experiencing internal rifts sounds so far away from reality. It's sad, but it's so true. They are well-organized and are less vulnerable than the Lebanese army, because they're made up of only one sect and come from one region of Lebanon....

1:39 PM  
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So are these predictions or just basic facts? Quite "predictable" as they say.

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